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zoomWidth: 320, zoomHeight: 250 }); }); </script> <div id="dtdmklu" class="product_detail" id="pd1"> <h6 style="text-align: center;"><strong>? <span style="font-size: 24px;color: #333">黎明就在眼前，2019環(huán)保行業(yè)前景整體看好</span></strong> <p class="smal-hide"><span>發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-04-28 10:47</span> <span>點(diǎn)擊：<script src="/hyhb/count.php?view=yes&aid=542&mid=1" type='text/javascript' language="javascript"></script></span></p> </h6> <div id="vtmtlum" class="wznr"><div> 從下圖看，截至2018年三季度末，環(huán)保行業(yè)整體資產(chǎn)負債率進(jìn)一步提高，三季度末較二季度末提高6.7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，達到54.8%，較2017年同期提高3.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。整體籌資性?xún)衄F金流流量275億元，與去年同期基本持平，但三季度單季僅47億元，與二季度的98億元相比降低52.1%，同比2017年三季度單季下滑53.1%，顯示行業(yè)融資環(huán)境有所轉差。</div> <div> </div> <div> 行業(yè)整體資產(chǎn)負債率攀升<img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q10431S5.png" style="width: 498px; height: 317px;" /></div> <div> </div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 前三季度環(huán)保行業(yè)整毛利率28.66%，較2017年同期略有下降0.26個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，基本保持平穩。凈利率同比下滑2.62個(gè)百分點(diǎn)至11.19%，主要是期間費用率同比上升，前三季度同比增加1.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，其中財務(wù)費用率及管理費用（2018年前三季度包含研發(fā)費用）率分別同比增加0.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)和0.5個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。</div> <div> </div> <div> 行業(yè)整體毛利率基本平穩</div> <div> <br /> <img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q104422b.png" style="width: 496px; height: 314px;" /></div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 行業(yè)整體凈利率下滑明顯</div> <div> </div> <div> <img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q1045E56.png" style="width: 495px; height: 316px;" /></div> <div> </div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 期間費用率提高明顯</div> <div> </div> <div> <img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q1050DD.png" style="width: 490px; height: 311px;" /></div> <div> </div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 分板塊看，行業(yè)內各細分板塊呈現不同程度下跌。按照總市值加權平均，監測檢測、供熱、水環(huán)境、大氣、固廢危廢、水務(wù)、節能板塊年初至今跌幅分別為24%、28%、42%、44%、50%、51%、60%。</div> <div> </div> <div> 各細分板塊均有不同程度下跌（%，總市值加權）</div> <div> </div> <div> <img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q1051H24.png" style="width: 494px; height: 314px;" /></div> <div> </div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 個(gè)股市場(chǎng)表現</div> <div> </div> <div> <img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q1052cO.png" style="width: 491px; height: 316px;" /></div> <div> </div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 在防范PPP濫用及化解政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險的要求下，PPP自去年下半年進(jìn)入項目集中清理整頓，2017年11月財政部印發(fā)《關(guān)于規范政府和社會(huì )資本合作（PPP）綜合信息平臺項目庫管理的通知》，要求各級財政部門(mén)應于2018年3月31日前完成本地區項目管理庫集中清理工作，對未按規定開(kāi)展“兩個(gè)論證”、不宜繼續采用PPP模式實(shí)施、不符合規范運作要求、構成違法違規舉債擔保、未按規定進(jìn)行信息公開(kāi)等五類(lèi)已入庫PPP項目予以清退。</div> <div> </div> <div> 2018年三季度管理庫共清退項目538個(gè)，涉及投資額0.9萬(wàn)億元，項目數量及涉及投資金額均較清退初期有明顯下降，PPP逐漸趨向規范，清退影響正在逐漸減弱。</div> <div> </div> <div> PPP項目穩中向好，民營(yíng)企業(yè)積極參與生態(tài)環(huán)保類(lèi)項目。截至2018年三季度末，管理庫累計項目數達到8289個(gè)，總投資額12.3萬(wàn)億元。其中累計落地項目總數4089個(gè)，落地率49.3%，較年初提升11.1個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。落地項目中民營(yíng)企業(yè)北京的2383家，占比35.2%，與二季度相比略有下降。民營(yíng)資本背景落地項目數前三位分別為市政工程、生態(tài)建設和環(huán)境保護、交通運輸，生態(tài)環(huán)保項目成為民營(yíng)資本的主要投資方向。</div> <div> </div> <div> 落地項目社會(huì )資本的分類(lèi)及占比</div> <div> </div> <div> <img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q10542T4.png" style="width: 494px; height: 316px;" /></div> <div> </div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 民資背景落地項目行業(yè)分布</div> <div> </div> <div> <img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q1055a10.png" style="width: 500px; height: 389px;" />g</div> <div> </div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 在2018年11月22日第四屆中國PPP融資論壇中，財政部PPP中心主任焦小平表示將在環(huán)境領(lǐng)域選擇一批PPP示范項目，中央財政通過(guò)專(zhuān)項資金支持地方關(guān)于PPP項目資本金注冊不足問(wèn)題，政策會(huì )很快出臺，表明生態(tài)環(huán)境有望成為PPP模式的重點(diǎn)和優(yōu)先領(lǐng)域，資金來(lái)源不足問(wèn)題有望得到一定解決，利于緩解地方舉債與環(huán)保治理的矛盾。同時(shí)在會(huì )議中還提出10%限額以?xún)鹊腜PP支出責任不是隱形債務(wù)，而是財政支出責任，政府應帶頭履約，PPP項目回款有望得到保障。生態(tài)環(huán)保類(lèi)項目作為PPP項目的重要組成，將受益于PPP政策利好。</div> <div> </div> <div> PPP政策逐漸回暖</div> <div> </div> <div> <img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q106115Q.png" style="width: 547px; height: 695px;" /></div> <div> </div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 根據全國PPP綜合信息平臺項目管理庫2018年三季度報，污染防治與綠色低碳項目三季度環(huán)比新增項目326個(gè)，投資額1014億元，管理庫累計污染防治與綠色低碳項目總數4519個(gè)，總投資額4.4萬(wàn)億元。前三季度生態(tài)建設和環(huán)境保護項目數合計占管理庫項目總數的9.6%，投資額占比7.1%；累計落地項目數410個(gè)，落地項目投資額4812億元。</div> <div> </div> <div> 2018年前三季度PPP管理庫累計項目數分布（個(gè)）</div> <div> </div> <div> <img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q106264D.png" style="width: 493px; height: 370px;" /></div> <div> </div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 2018年前三季度PPP管理庫累計投資額分布（億元）</div> <div> </div> <div> <img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q10641I8.png" style="width: 493px; height: 359px;" /></div> <div> </div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 并購是環(huán)保企業(yè)獲取新資質(zhì)、拓展業(yè)務(wù)范圍的重要手段之一，2013年起進(jìn)入加速通道。根據統計數據，2018年1-7月環(huán)保行業(yè)共發(fā)生并購50起，涉及金額334.27億元，2017年全年環(huán)保行業(yè)并購金額共計385億元，顯示2018年環(huán)保并購勢頭依然保持迅猛。并購主要以民營(yíng)上市公司為主，以拓寬業(yè)務(wù)范圍的橫向并購為主，固廢領(lǐng)域并購逐漸成為并購市場(chǎng)關(guān)注焦點(diǎn)，1-7月并購項目中共有24起與固廢領(lǐng)域相關(guān)，危廢及環(huán)衛領(lǐng)域成為新熱點(diǎn)。</div> <div> </div> <div> 環(huán)保行業(yè)并購數量及金額</div> <div> </div> <div> <img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q10A5Y2.png" style="width: 504px; height: 317px;" /></div> <div> </div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 2018年9月份，國家發(fā)改委提出加大基礎設施等領(lǐng)域補短板力度，穩定有效投資。10月國務(wù)院辦公廳印發(fā)《關(guān)于保持基礎設施領(lǐng)域補短板力度的指導意見(jiàn)》，生態(tài)環(huán)保是聚焦短板的重要領(lǐng)域，農村環(huán)境、城鎮生活污水、生活垃圾、危險廢物處理設施建設以及黑臭水體和重點(diǎn)流域水環(huán)境綜合治理等細分領(lǐng)域是重要方向。</div> <div> </div> <div> 基建補短板主要領(lǐng)域</div> <div> </div> <div> <img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q10F9315.png" style="width: 488px; height: 643px;" /></div> <div> </div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 2008年以來(lái)，國家財政在環(huán)境保護方面的支出保持增長(cháng)，9年間的復合增速達到16.4%，2017年達到5672.1億元，同比增長(cháng)19.8%，大幅超過(guò)國家財政總支出同比增速。截至2018年10月，公共財政支出累計17.53萬(wàn)億元，同比增長(cháng)7.6%。其中用于節能環(huán)保方向的公共財政支出4387.2億元，同比增長(cháng)7.5%。今年以來(lái)，公共財政中的節能環(huán)保支出月度同比平均增速10%，超過(guò)公共財政支出總額的月度同比平均增速8%。</div> <div> </div> <div> 2018年地方政府專(zhuān)項債務(wù)新增計劃由2017年的8000億元提高至13500億元，增幅達到68.75%，生態(tài)環(huán)保類(lèi)項目亦將受益。</div> <div> </div> <div> 國家財政對環(huán)境保護的支出保持增長(cháng)</div> <div> </div> <div> <img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q10H3334.png" style="width: 534px; height: 357px;" /></div> <div> </div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 節能環(huán)保支出月度同比增速超過(guò)財政支出總額</div> <div> </div> <div> <img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q10I54W.png" style="width: 552px; height: 329px;" /></div> <div> </div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 我們按照水環(huán)境、空氣、土壤三類(lèi)對“十三五”期間環(huán)境質(zhì)量監測的需求進(jìn)行估計，其中水環(huán)境質(zhì)量監測（地表水）需求約為253.1億元；空氣質(zhì)量監測需求約165.67億元；土壤污染監測需求約為171億元。三類(lèi)環(huán)境質(zhì)量監測需求合計約590億元。</div> <div> </div> <div> 環(huán)境質(zhì)量監測“十三五”市場(chǎng)需求估計</div> <div> <br /> <img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q10JCa.png" style="width: 546px; height: 167px;" /></div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 2016年，財政部“重金屬污染防治”專(zhuān)項資金改稱(chēng)“土壤污染防治專(zhuān)項資金”，預算數由37億元大幅提升145.65%至90.89億元。2017年該項預算繼續提升至112億元，但受政策、法規執行不到位和項目質(zhì)量不及預期等影響，當年執行數只有65.35億元。2018年的土壤專(zhuān)項預算規模就下降到65億元。</div> <div> </div> <div> 土壤污染防治專(zhuān)項資金（億元）</div> <div> </div> <div> <img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q10P23U.png" style="width: 521px; height: 315px;" /></div> <div> </div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 2018年9月以后，高能環(huán)境和民基生態(tài)兩家傳統環(huán)境修復公司的新增訂單規模出現了大幅度的上升，且均超過(guò)2017年全年水平。從新增訂單金額比例來(lái)看，兩家公司在《土法》過(guò)會(huì )后的新增訂單金額分別占到2018年新增訂單總金額的68.87%和77.78%?！锻练ā穼Νh(huán)境修復市場(chǎng)需求的促進(jìn)作用有所顯現。</div> <div> </div> <div> 主要上市環(huán)境修復公司訂單情況</div> <div> </div> <div> <img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q10Q5147.png" style="width: 549px; height: 171px;" /></div> <div> </div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 土壤修復項目絕大部分采用EPC模式實(shí)施，項目單體訂單規模普遍較小。以信息披露較充分的高能環(huán)境為例，其已公告環(huán)境修復訂單中，64%的單體訂單金額在5000萬(wàn)-1億元的區間。</div> <div> </div> <div> 高能環(huán)境已公告土壤修復訂單金額分布</div> <div> </div> <div> <img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q10RY91.png" style="width: 501px; height: 309px;" /></div> <div> </div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 環(huán)境修復訂單實(shí)施周期一般在9個(gè)月-12個(gè)月，短于水環(huán)境的18個(gè)月-24個(gè)月，施工周期和回款周期較短。因此，盡管環(huán)境修復同屬于工程類(lèi)項目，但項目對資金的占用較小，整體安全性相對較高。</div> <div> </div> <div> 2019年，環(huán)保行業(yè)有望看到曙光：一是宏觀(guān)政策方面強調繼續打好污染防治攻堅戰，在保持基礎設施補短板力度的要求下，2019年環(huán)保投資大概率穩??；二是企業(yè)主動(dòng)求變向高質(zhì)量發(fā)展，價(jià)改持續推進(jìn)使商業(yè)模式進(jìn)一步明晰；三是公司與監管層合力化危為機，企業(yè)個(gè)體風(fēng)險逐步走向緩解；四是寒冬之后，企業(yè)更加認識到技術(shù)創(chuàng )新和管理創(chuàng )新的重要性，有望加大研發(fā)投入創(chuàng )造價(jià)值，精細化管理挖掘增值空間。</div> <div> </div> <div> 近年來(lái)，我國生態(tài)環(huán)境監測網(wǎng)絡(luò )建設不斷提速，水土氣三網(wǎng)初步建成。</div> <div> </div> <div> 根據2017中國生態(tài)環(huán)境狀況公報，截止目前，空氣質(zhì)量監測網(wǎng)絡(luò )包括338個(gè)地級及以上城市布設的1436個(gè)國控監測站點(diǎn)和地方建設的省、市、縣監測點(diǎn)位近4000個(gè)；地表水水質(zhì)監測網(wǎng)絡(luò )方面，國控斷面由“十二五”期間的972個(gè)擴展到2050個(gè)；地下水監測工程建設初步完成，包括223個(gè)地市級行政區的5100個(gè)監測點(diǎn)，其中國家級監測點(diǎn)1000個(gè)；城鄉飲用水水質(zhì)監測實(shí)現全國所有地市、縣區全覆蓋和85%的鄉鎮覆蓋，包括338個(gè)地級及以上城市898個(gè)在用集中式生活飲用水水源監測斷面；國家土壤環(huán)境監測網(wǎng)由背景點(diǎn)位、基礎點(diǎn)位和風(fēng)險監控點(diǎn)位組成，包含生態(tài)環(huán)境部的38880個(gè)監測點(diǎn)位、農業(yè)農村部的40061個(gè)監測點(diǎn)位，和自然資源部1000個(gè)監測點(diǎn)位。</div> <div> </div> <div> 2017年我國環(huán)境監測儀器產(chǎn)品結構</div> <div> </div> <div> <img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q10T13W.png" style="width: 495px; height: 312px;" /></div> <div> </div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 2017年我國環(huán)境監測儀器地區銷(xiāo)售結構</div> <div> </div> <div> <img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q10U3S3.png" style="width: 500px; height: 318px;" /></div> <div> </div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 當前我國生活垃圾無(wú)害化處理的主要方式是填埋。我國人口密度高、土地稀缺的國情決定了焚燒將成為今后的主流處理方式，填埋方式將逐步減少，成為生活垃圾處理的補充方式，“十三五”規劃，到2020年底，具備條件的直轄市、計劃單列市和省會(huì )城市（建成區）實(shí)現原生垃圾“零填埋”，垃圾焚燒處理能力有望持續提升。</div> <div> </div> <div> “十三五”城鎮生活垃圾投資分布</div> <div> </div> <div> <img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q10Z6112.png" style="width: 498px; height: 315px;" /></div> <div> </div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 城鎮生活垃圾處理設施投資仍處于高位</div> <div> </div> <div> <img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q109195G.png" style="width: 496px; height: 318px;" /></div> <div> </div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 打贏(yíng)“藍天保衛戰”的背景下，煤改氣成為天然氣消費增長(cháng)的主要驅動(dòng)力。2017年全國天然氣消費量約2373億立方米，同比增長(cháng)15%，天然氣在一次能源消費結構中的占比增至約7.2%，在天然氣消費結構中，城市燃氣占比*大，用于工業(yè)燃料和發(fā)電的天然氣增速超過(guò)20%；2018年1-10月，國內天然氣表觀(guān)消費量2248億立方米，同比增長(cháng)18%，維持高增長(cháng)態(tài)勢。</div> <div> </div> <div> 2017年分部門(mén)天然氣消費結構</div> <div> </div> <div> <img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/190428/1-1Z42Q109314P.png" style="width: 500px; height: 317px;" /></div> <div> </div> <div> 圖表信息參考</div> <div> </div> <div> 我們建議關(guān)注景氣度較高、風(fēng)險較低的監測板塊，運營(yíng)能力不斷提升的固廢板塊以及有望實(shí)現價(jià)量齊升的燃氣領(lǐng)域。</div> <div> </div> </div> <p id="cztz">版權聲明：本網(wǎng)注明來(lái)源為“環(huán)亞環(huán)?！钡奈淖?、圖片內容，版權均屬本站所有，如若轉載，請注明本文出處：http://ujianfei.com 。同時(shí)本網(wǎng)轉載內容僅為傳播資訊，不代表本網(wǎng)觀(guān)點(diǎn)。如涉及作品內容、版權和其它問(wèn)題，請與本網(wǎng)站聯(lián)系，我們將在及時(shí)刪除內容。</p> <p><br></p> <span id="ktuvtdv" class="czt"> <li id="tjyd"> 推薦閱讀：<a class="czt" href="/style/hyxw/2021/0524/2379.html">我國該如何實(shí)現碳中和？以下四條路徑或許是個(gè)辦法</a> </li> </span> <div id="dm1dv7k" class="page" 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